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The total fertility rate increased slightly after 1975 and now stands at about 2.1, roughly the minimum rate needed to maintain population size without any net immigration. Fertility then declined steeply until the mid 1970s. The total fertility rate-the number of children women bear-plummeted during the Great Depression in the 1930s and then soared in the 1950s after World War II (producing what we know as the "baby boom" cohort). Before 1980, the black category includes all nonwhites.ĭeclining fertility rates partly account for population aging. Note: The total fertility rate is the number of children that a woman would bear if she survived her childbearing years and experienced the prevailing age-specific birth rates throughout. The latest Social Security Administration projections indicate that there will be 2.1 workers per Social Security beneficiary in 2040, down from 3.7 in 1970. The number of workers sharing the cost of supporting Social Security beneficiaries will soon plummet unless future employment patterns change dramatically. Note: Projections are based on the Social Security trustees' intermediate cost assumptions.
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Because younger people are much more likely than older people to work and pay taxes that finance Social Security, Medicare, and all other public-sector activities, population aging could strain government budgets. By 2040, about one in five Americans will be age 65 or older, up from about one in eight in 2000.
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The number of adults ages 85 and older, the group most often needing help with basic personal care, will nearly quadruple between 20. The number of Americans ages 65 and older will more than double over the next 40 years, reaching 80 million in 2040.